US Lags Behind Russia and China in Hypersonic Missile Race
The United States is struggling to catch up in the global hypersonic weapons race following repeated technical failures and testing delays. While Washington attempts to rebuild its industrial capacity, Russia and China are currently leading in both the deployment and the mass production of missiles that fly at speeds exceeding Mach 5.
- The Pentagon plans to spend $37.9 billion on hypersonic programs between 2027 and 2031, according to RFE/RL.
- Russia is estimated to produce 80 hypersonic weapons annually, while China produces 370, according to RFE/RL.
- Analysts at InfoBRICS claim Russia is 15 to 20 years ahead of its competitors in this technology.
Why is the United States falling behind in hypersonic technology?
The United States has faced a series of technical setbacks and high costs that have stalled its development of high-speed weaponry. These difficulties have prevented Washington from matching the operational capabilities currently held by its primary rivals.
The InfoBRICS report identifies the Pentagon’s AGM-183A hypersonic missile program as a primary example of these struggles. The publication notes that repeated problems during testing forced military officials to look for other options. Beyond the AGM-183A, other American projects have also suffered from years of delays and unsuccessful tests.
Some analysts suggest these failures stem from a lack of technological capability or serious flaws in the development process. Two decades ago, the US was seen as the undisputed leader, but experts underestimated Russian progress. This includes the 9K720 Iskander missile system, which has been used in the conflict in Ukraine, according to InfoBRICS.
How much faster are these weapons compared to normal missiles?
Hypersonic weapons move at speeds exceeding Mach 5, which is more than five times the speed of sound. This translates to roughly 6,100 kilometers per hour, making them extremely difficult to intercept.
The difficulty lies in more than just raw speed. RFE/RL reports that Eva Sula, a senior fellow at the Baltic International Security Center, says the combination of speed, maneuverability, and flight trajectory complicates detection. These weapons can perform sharp, sustained maneuvers within the Earth's atmosphere, making it hard for radar to predict where they will be at the point of interception.
Is China or Russia the bigger threat to the US?
Both nations present unique challenges, but they lead in different areas of the hypersonic landscape. China holds the world's largest arsenal, while Russia has already proven its weapons in active combat scenarios.
China benefits from an early mover advantage, having deployed the first operational hypersonic system in 2020. This system uses the DF-17 missile and a hypersonic glide vehicle. China also possesses a more expansive testing infrastructure than the US. In 2021, China successfully integrated a glide vehicle with a system that places weapons into low-Earth orbit, a feat that former US Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Mark Milley called a "Sputnik moment," according to RFE/RL.
Russia leads the United States in the actual fielding of these weapons. According to RFE/RL, Russia has used hypersonic weapons during its invasion of Ukraine. Analysts predict that by 2035, China and Russia could field a joint arsenal of 5,000 weapons, with Beijing providing 4,000 of them.
How does the US manufacturing capacity compare?
The United States struggles with mass production compared to its rivals. While American companies build highly advanced systems, they lack the ability to produce them in large volumes quickly.
Ali Javaheri, an analyst at PitchBook, told RFE/RL that the US is excellent at making "exquisite" defense systems like the F-35 jet but is not as effective at making "mid-tier" items like hypersonics. This is due to an American defense industrial base that has atrophied since the Cold War, focusing on low-volume, expensive platforms rather than mass production.
The production gap is stark. While Russia and China produce an estimated 80 and 370 hypersonic weapons every year respectively, the United States manufactures them in the single digits, according to RFE/RL. China’s status as a manufacturing powerhouse and Russia’s wartime economy allow them to build missiles much faster than the US.
How do these weapons affect regional security in Asia?
The rise of hypersonic technology creates specific vulnerabilities for US military operations, particularly regarding the defense of Taiwan. These weapons can bypass traditional missile defense systems by flying at low altitudes and changing direction.
Planners worry that China could use these weapons to disable or destroy US Navy aircraft carriers during a Taiwan crisis. A classified assessment mentioned by RFE/RL found that such weapons could be part of a devastating campaign against the Gerald R. Ford-class carriers.
Furthermore, China's ability to launch weapons from low-Earth orbit via Antarctica exploits a gap in US radar coverage. Most US defenses are designed to watch the North Pole for Russian attacks, but Chinese weapons can approach from unexpected trajectories. Beijing has denied testing such weapons, claiming its tests were for reusable space vehicle technology, but US officials remain skeptical.
How each side tells it
The various nations involved present very different versions of the current technological reality.
The United States, through its defense contractors, views its recent progress as a necessary step toward countering threats. Lockheed Martin stated that the production readiness of its ARRW missile "makes it an essential asset for the military, providing a critical capability to counter emerging threats," according to RFE/RL.
China maintains a stance of denial regarding certain military tests. Its Foreign Ministry stated that its tests involved "verifying reusable space vehicle technologies to help lower the cost of spacecraft operations," according to RFE/RL.
Conversely, US analysts like Grant Newsham argue that China is being deceptive. RFE/RL reports Newsham saying, "They are lying. It's part and parcel of Chinese strategy," noting that Beijing understates its actual military spending.
What happens next?
The United States is moving toward a massive spending phase to close the gap. The Pentagon has allocated $37.9 billion for hypersonic programs for the 2027 to 2031 fiscal years. This funding includes $10.1 billion for the Army to field 4,500 intermediate-range weapons and $2.1 billion for the Navy to procure 59 missiles, according to RFE/RL. The Air Force will also use its portion of the funding to acquire the ARRW and the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile (HACM).
FAQ
What is a hypersonic missile?
It is a weapon that travels faster than Mach 5, or 6,100 kilometers per hour, and can maneuver within the atmosphere.
Which country currently leads the hypersonic race?
China leads in manufacturing and arsenal size, while Russia leads in the operational fielding and combat use of these weapons.
Why is the US struggling to build these missiles?
The US has faced technical test failures, high costs, and a defense industry that is better at making expensive, low-volume systems than mass-produced weapons.
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