ASEAN Faces Geopolitical Pressure Amid Energy Risks and Shifting Alliances

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is facing a period of intense pressure as leaders in Manila attempt to navigate a volatile geopolitical landscape marked by Middle East instability and shifting regional loyalties. During the July meetings, member states expressed deep concern over energy security and the organization's ability to manage internal crises like the Myanmar civil war. These discussions come as the bloc's influence is tested by competing interests from the United States and China.

• ASEAN foreign ministers called for the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to protect energy supplies, according to The Boston Herald.
• Secretary of War Pete Hegseth proposed a "strong, quiet and clear" defense cooperation agenda in Cebu, according to Eurasia Review.
• A Pew Research Center survey found that China is now viewed more favorably than the United States in most surveyed countries, according to CFR.

Will the Middle East conflict disrupt Southeast Asian economies?

The ongoing war involving the United States and Iran poses a direct threat to the economic stability of Southeast Asia. Because the region is heavily dependent on oil and liquefied natural gas from the Persian Gulf, any disruption to shipping lanes could trigger massive energy shocks. This vulnerability was already evident when Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared a national energy emergency in March to protect the supply of fuel and food.

ASEAN ministers are particularly worried about the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that handled roughly 20% of global oil supplies before the conflict began, as reported by The Boston Herald. The bloc issued a joint statement pleading for peace and warning that renewed war could decimate access to energy, worsen poverty, and disrupt food production by cutting off fertilizer supplies.

How are the United States and China competing for influence?

The United States is working to maintain its role as a dependable Indo-Pacific partner, even as its popularity in the region faces challenges. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Manila to reassure officials that Washington remains invested in regional security. Rubio stated during the meeting that he believes the story of the twenty-first century will be written in this region.

However, recent data suggests a shift in regional sentiment. According to CFR, a Pew Research Center survey showed that China is now viewed more favorably than the United States in many Asian nations. In Malaysia, the gap is a staggering 56 points in favor of China, while in Indonesia, the gap is 43 points. This shift follows years of U.S. policy changes, including the Trump administration imposing tariffs on the Philippines and six other ASEAN members.

While the U.S. offers military financing, such as $100 million for the Philippines, regional leaders are also receiving significant aid and investment from China. This competition makes it difficult for ASEAN to maintain a neutral stance on global power struggles.

What is the U.S. defense strategy for the region?

The United States is pursuing a strategy of "peace through strength" to counter regional tensions. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth outlined a cooperation agenda in Cebu that emphasizes maritime domain awareness and naval interoperability. He argues that these practical collaborations help build the competence necessary to prevent conflict between nations.

"The approach we’re taking, we describe as strong, quiet and clear. Strong enough to deter coercion and aggression, quiet enough to avoid needless escalation or public theatrics to let our actions speak for themselves [and] clear enough that our friends, our partners and potential adversaries understand precisely where the United States stands, and that we will defend our interests and the interests of our allies and partners,"

Hegseth, the Secretary of War, explained during the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting.

This strategy aims to support self-reliant nations that can defend their own sovereignty. Hegseth pointed to the sustained ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia, which began in 2025, as a successful example of ASEAN-led purpose that the United States is willing to support. As the organization approaches its 50th anniversary next year, the U.S. intends to seek a more ambitious defense framework.

Can ASEAN resolve the crisis in Myanmar?

The civil war in Myanmar remains one of the most difficult challenges for the 11-nation bloc. Since the military took power in 2021, the conflict has resulted in more than 8,100 deaths and nearly 22,500 people in detention, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners. Despite these numbers, ASEAN has struggled to implement its five-point peace plan due to non-compliance by the military-backed government.

Recently, the bloc's approach to Myanmar has seen a controversial shift. In July, ASEAN foreign ministers met with Myanmar's leaders for the first time in five years. This move was seen by some as a way to break the political impasse, but rights groups criticized the decision. They argued the meeting granted legitimacy to the junta without securing any concessions for the people suffering from the conflict.

Philippine Foreign Minister Theresa Lazaro defended the engagement, stating that the path to peace requires resolute diplomacy with all parties. However, the lack of progress on the ground means that issues like refugees, drugs, and disease continue to spill across Southeast Asian borders.

How are territorial disputes in the South China Sea being handled?

Territorial standoffs in the South China Sea remain a constant source of tension. These disputes involve China, Taiwan, and several ASEAN members, including Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Tensions have specifically spiked between Chinese and Philippine coast guard and naval forces in recent years.

ASEAN leaders are currently attempting to negotiate a "code of conduct" with China. This pact aims to prevent maritime disputes from escalating into full-scale military conflicts. During the Manila talks, ministers met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to discuss the status of these ongoing negotiations. While the code of conduct is intended to provide a framework for stability, the effectiveness of these talks remains uncertain given the increasing assertiveness of Beijing in the region.

How each side tells it

The various actors involved in these regional tensions present very different views of the current situation:

• The United States: According to The Boston Herald, U.S. officials view their presence as a way to ensure a "free and open Indo-Pacific" and to provide security for allies.
• ASEAN Officials: As reported by CFR, many officials feel that U.S. words carry little meaning when economic policies, like tariffs, contradict security promises.
• The Myanmar Junta: While not quoted directly, the junta has used recent meetings to gain international legitimacy and has increased military assistance from countries like Russia and China to fuel its campaign.

What happens next?

The following events and milestones will determine the direction of the region:

• The finalization and public release of the ASEAN joint communiqué regarding Middle East stability and the Strait of Hormuz.
• Continued negotiations between ASEAN and China regarding the South China Sea "code of conduct."
• The 50th anniversary of ASEAN next year, which will serve as a deadline for new defense and cooperation frameworks.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is the war in the Middle East a concern for Southeast Asia?
Southeast Asia relies heavily on oil and gas from the Persian Gulf, so any closure of the Strait of Hormuz could cause energy prices and food costs to skyrocket.

Is ASEAN effective at solving regional conflicts?
Critics argue the organization is "toothless" because it has failed to end the civil war in Myanmar or resolve South China Sea disputes despite several years of meetings.

Why is China becoming more popular in Southeast Asia?
According to various polls, China's growing investment and aid are being weighed against U.S. policies like tariffs, leading to a shift in public favor in countries like Malaysia and Indonesia.