Will China Banned Nvidia Chips Impact the Global RAM Market?

Grace Lin08:30 28.10.20266 min read

Tesla CEO Elon Musk sparked investor anxiety on October 15 by warning that China will be "making a lot" of random-access memory (RAM) by 2028, a prediction that suggests a looming global supply glut. This forecast directly challenges the current dominance of South Korean chipmakers and could reshape the semiconductor landscape as China scales its production capabilities.

Samsung Electronics shares dropped 10.56 percent on October 15 following Musk's comments, according to koreajoongangdaily.com.
SK hynix shares fell 12.76 percent on the same day, reported by koreajoongangdaily.com.
Gartner projects global semiconductor revenue will reach $1.6 trillion in 2026, according to tradingview.com.

Is a global chip glut actually coming?

The semiconductor industry is currently split between those predicting a massive oversupply and those expecting endless demand driven by artificial intelligence. While Musk anticipates a glut as early as 2028, other industry leaders see a different future. The disagreement has caused significant volatility in the stock markets of major chip producers.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang argues that memory supplies are unlikely to exceed demand even by 2029. He believes the high bandwidth memory (HBM) required for AI processors will remain in heavy use for many years. This view suggests that the AI boom provides a massive cushion that could absorb any new production entering the market.

However, some analysts worry about the long-term stability of this boom. A column in South Korea's Maeil Business Newspaper warned that a wave of new supply could flood the market by 2029. This potential oversupply could depress prices and intensify competition, particularly for companies that do not specialize in high-end AI chips.

How does Elon Musk see the Chinese threat?

Elon Musk views China's entry into the memory market as a potential disruptor that could break the current oligopoly. He believes China's ability to scale production once they master a technology is unmatched. This could lead to a scenario where standard memory components become significantly cheaper, hurting the profit margins of established players.

Musk's warning followed a report suggesting South Korea's reliance on Samsung Electronics and SK hynix could be exposed by 2029. He accelerated this timeline by suggesting the Chinese expansion would be in full swing by 2028. His comments suggest a shift from a market controlled by three major players to one with much more competition.

Elon Musk cautioned that China will be "making a lot" of random-access memory (RAM) by 2028.

The scale of this potential shift is supported by data from Morgan Stanley. According to news.qq.com, China's ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) could see its DRAM monthly wafer capacity grow from 180,000 in 2025 to 500,000 by 2028. This would position the company to potentially surpass Micron as a top global supplier.

Can China overcome US technology bans?

The primary obstacle for Chinese chipmakers is the lack of access to advanced manufacturing tools. Specifically, US regulations prevent Chinese firms from acquiring extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment. This equipment is essential for making the most advanced and efficient chips in the world.

Because they cannot access EUV, Chinese companies like CXMT are forced to find alternative ways to compete. One method involves using "4F-squared" designs to shrink memory cells without the most advanced tools. This allows them to pack more data onto a chip of the same size, helping them stay competitive in the standard memory market.

Experts are divided on whether this can work. Roh Geun-chang, CEO of Semicon Research Lab, noted that the acquisition ban imposes a substantial barrier to technological competitiveness. He stated that even if Chinese companies announce expansion plans, the actual increase in high-end capacity will likely be limited because major players like Samsung and TSMC are buying up the available equipment.

On the other hand, CXMT's CEO Cao Kanyu stated that the company has developed a new transistor to address electrical leakage. This technology is intended to lay the groundwork for the 4F-squared design. The company aims to launch a DDR5 server memory module using this method by the end of this year.

What are the risks for South Korean manufacturers?

South Korean companies face a dual threat: the rise of Chinese competitors and the financial stability of their customers. While Samsung and SK hynix currently lead in high-bandwidth memory (HBM), they remain vulnerable in the high-volume, lower-margin standard memory markets where China is expanding rapidly.

The risk is not just about competition, but also about who is buying the chips. Smaller, debt-funded cloud providers like CoreWeave have less financial flexibility than giants like Google or Amazon. If AI demand falls or financing becomes more expensive, these smaller providers could struggle, leading to a shakeout that hits all chip suppliers.

Currently, demand remains high. Executives at Amazon and Google have stated their data center capacity is fully booked. Local media reported on Tuesday that Chinese cloud providers, including Alibaba and Tencent, are seeking long-term supply deals with Korean firms, sometimes asking for contracts to extend as far as 2035.

How does the market view the current boom?

Despite the fears of a glut, the financial outlook for the semiconductor industry remains largely positive in the short term. South Korean Finance Minister Lee Hyoung-Il told CNBC that the industry is on a strong growth path through at least 2027. He noted that demand continues to outstrip supply by a wide margin.

Market projections suggest massive growth is still ahead. Bank of America projects the global semiconductor market could nearly double to $3.2 trillion by 2030, according to tradingview.com. This growth is expected to be driven by memory chips and components for data centers.

The volatility in stock prices reflects the uncertainty of this timeline. While Samsung and SK hynix saw significant drops following Musk's remarks, they also saw a rebound after new filings from AI companies like Anthropic. This shows that investor sentiment is highly sensitive to both supply fears and AI demand news.

What happens next?

The semiconductor industry will closely monitor several key developments over the next two years. Investors will be looking for signs of whether China's production capacity for DDR5 and other server memory modules actually hits the targets set for 2025 and 2026. Any breakthrough in Chinese manufacturing efficiency could accelerate the timeline for a market glut.

Additionally, the industry will watch the capacity expansion of ASML. As the sole provider of EUV machines, ASML is expected to increase its production capacity from 44 units in 2025 to over 80 units in 2027. The ability of major manufacturers to secure this equipment will determine if the technological gap between them and Chinese firms remains wide or begins to close.

Finally, the continued capital expenditure of "hyperscalers" will be critical. If major AI players continue to borrow heavily to build data centers, the high demand may prevent a price crash regardless of how much Chinese supply enters the market.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Elon Musk warn about a chip glut?
Musk believes that China's rapid scaling of memory chip production will lead to a massive oversupply by 2028, which could crash prices and hurt current market leaders.

Can China compete with Samsung and SK hynix?
China is becoming a major competitor in standard memory (RAM), but it still struggles to compete in the advanced high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used for high-end AI processors.

How do US sanctions affect Chinese chip production?
US sanctions prevent Chinese companies from buying the advanced EUV machines needed to make the most sophisticated chips, forcing them to use older or less efficient manufacturing methods.

Sources

Southeast Asia

ASEAN Envoy to Visit Myanmar to Advance Peace Plan

ASEAN special envoy Maria Theresa Lazaro will visit Naypyidaw, Myanmar, on October 28 and 29, 2024, to address the ongoing civil war and humanitarian crisis. This mission aims to advance the bloc's Five-Point Consensus, which seeks to end hostilities and facilitate dialogue within the country following the 2021 military coup. Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow stated on Tuesday that the itinerary for the visit is still being worked out, according to Channel News Asia . The Philippines, acting as the ASEAN chair, has previously requested access to detained leader Aung San Suu Kyi, according to Channel News Asia . Aung San Suu Kyi's son, Kim Aris, reported on Thursday that the former leader sounded "fairly healthy" during a telephone call, according to Channel News Asia . Why is the ASEAN envoy visiting Myanmar? The visit serves as a diplomatic effort to implement the ASEAN Five-Point Consensus established in April 2021. This framework was created to stabilize Myanmar after the military coup led by Min Aung Hlaing. The envoy's presence is intended to facilitate mediation and expand access for humanitarian aid through the AHA Centre. The mission follows years of political deadlock. Since the coup, ASEAN has excluded Myanmar from high-level meetings because the nation has not made meaningful progress toward the consensus. Lazaro previously stated in July that her goal was to expand humanitarian access in a country currently plunged into civil war, according to Channel News Asia . What are the specific goals of the Five-Point Consensus? The consensus outlines five distinct requirements to resolve the Myanmar crisis. These include an immediate cessation of violence and the requirement that all parties exercise utmost restraint. It also mandates constructive dialogue among all concerned parties to find a peaceful solution for the citizens. The third point requires a special envoy to facilitate the mediation process with assistance from the ASEAN secretary-general. Additionally, the bloc must provide humanitarian assistance. Finally, the special envoy and their delegation are tasked with visiting Myanmar to meet with all relevant parties, according to Channel News Asia . How does the political situation in Myanmar look now? The political landscape remains fractured and dangerous. While the envoy seeks to meet with various parties, there is no confirmed information regarding a meeting with the detained former democratic leader Aung San Suu Kyi. She has been held since the 2021 military takeover. Recent developments offer small glimpses into her condition. In August, she met with a representative from the International Committee of the Red Cross. On Thursday, her son Kim Aris spoke to her via telephone from the Myanmar London embassy. Although he noted she sounded "fairly healthy," he expressed that he remains "very concerned about her well-being," according to Channel News Asia . How does this relate to broader regional security? ASEAN security is being discussed through multiple channels, including the ADMM-Plus. At the 13th ADMM-Plus meeting in Cebu, Philippines, leaders addressed regional stability. Deputy Prime Minister Phan Van Giang of Vietnam called for partners to support a "united and resilient ASEAN" based on equality and mutual respect, according to VGP . Security discussions also involve major powers. During the meeting in Cebu, the U.S. participated, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth attending to signal regional security commitments, according to NewsCord . Meanwhile, China sent a low-profile representative to the same summit, according to NewsCord . What is the history of South Korea's role in the region? South Korea maintains deep ties with Southeast Asian nations like Timor-Leste. In 1999, South Korea dispatched the Sangnoksu Unit to support peace and reconstruction in Timor-Leste. This historical connection has evolved into a relationship built on "peace and friendship," according to MK . South Korean diplomacy also focuses on the Korean Peninsula through trilateral cooperation. Foreign Minister Cho Hyun is scheduled to meet with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi on October 30 in Atlanta. They will discuss North Korea's ballistic missile launches and regional economic security, according to SBS . What happens next for ASEAN diplomacy? The immediate focus is on the results of the envoy's mission. Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow noted that the report from this visit is intended for a meeting of ASEAN ministers. This meeting will take place in Manila before the upcoming ASEAN Summit, according to Channel News Asia . Other upcoming regional milestones include the trilateral meeting in the U.S. on October 30. This gathering will also include a signing ceremony for the trilateral Arctic and Pacific partnership cooperation memorandum at 5:10 PM on that day, according to SBS . FAQ Who is the ASEAN special envoy to Myanmar? The special envoy is Maria Theresa Lazaro, who serves as the Philippines Foreign Secretary. What is the Five-Point Consensus? It is an agreement reached by ASEAN leaders in April 2021 to end violence and facilitate dialogue in Myanmar. Why is Myanmar excluded from ASEAN meetings? Myanmar is excluded from high-level meetings because it has not shown progress in following the bloc's Five-Point Consensus. SEO Meta Description: ASEAN envoy Maria Theresa Lazaro visits Myanmar on Oct 28 to push the Five-Point Consensus and address the ongoing humanitarian crisis and civil war. URL Slug: asean-envoy-myanmar-visit-five-point-consensus

Sara Lindqvist·14:00 03.11.2026

South Asia

Political Storm Erupts in Patna Following Controversial Modi News

A political row erupted in Patna on Sunday, October 26, 2026, after Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge made a controversial remark regarding Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a public event. The incident, which has become a focal point for modi news , involves allegations of personal insults directed at the Prime Minister's family and a subsequent physical altercation with a man in the audience. This confrontation has triggered nationwide protests from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and a heated debate over political decorum in India. What was the specific remark made by Mallikarjun Kharge? Mallikarjun Kharge responded to a voice from the crowd by stating that the Prime Minister's father would also have to leave power. This comment occurred during a speech where the Congress leader was already criticizing the current administration's policies and alleging electoral fraud. The event was held at the Bapu Sabhagar in Patna to mark the 139th birth anniversary of Shri Krishna Singh, the first Chief Minister of Bihar. According to News24 Online , while Kharge was speaking, a voice from the audience said, "... Modi nahin jayega (will not go/lose power)." Kharge then responded from the stage, saying, "Modi ka baap bhi jayega (Even his father will have to go)." The report notes that Kharge repeated this specific statement three times. The confrontation led to immediate chaos within the venue. Reports indicate that the man who spoke was surrounded by Congress supporters, thrown to the ground, and beaten before being removed from the hall. This physical response to the verbal exchange has added a layer of violence to the existing political tension. Was the incident a deliberate insult or a misunderstanding? The nature of the exchange is disputed, as the man who spoke claims his words were cut short and misinterpreted by the Congress President. While the BJP views the remark as a targeted slur, the individual involved suggests the context was lost. The man, identified as Santosh Kumar , spoke to reporters outside the venue to clarify his position. According to News24 Online , Kumar denied heckling the Congress President. He stated that his full intention was to say that the Prime Minister would not leave power unless there was a revolt in the country. Kumar told reporters: “I was saying that ‘unless there is a revolt, Modi will not go’. But only a part of it was heard and was misunderstood,” Despite the claim of a misunderstanding, the impact of the words remains a point of contention. While Kumar maintains he actually wanted the Prime Minister to leave power, the perceived insult has already mobilized the opposition's rivals. The discrepancy between what was heard and what was intended remains the central mystery of the Patna event. How does the BJP view the comments made by Kharge? The BJP has condemned the remarks as an attack on the Prime Minister, his family, and the dignity of the nation. The party leaders argue that the Congress party has moved away from policy debates toward personal and indecent attacks. Union Home Minister Amit Shah criticized the Congress President on the social media platform X. According to News24 Online , Shah stated: “This is not the first time that the Congress party has used abusive language against Modi ji or his family. They have hurled insults at his revered mother, called him ‘merchant of death’, and mocked his poverty by calling him ‘chaiwala’. Under Rahul Gandhi’s leadership, the Congress party keeps crossing the limits of indecency every day.” Other party members have joined the criticism. BJP spokesperson Tuhin A Sinha described the statement as "disgusting, petulant, uncouth." Additionally, Bihar BJP President Nitin Nabin claimed the opposition resorts to personal attacks when they lack substantive issues regarding governance and public welfare. Union Minister Giriraj Singh also defended the Prime Minister, asserting that Modi will remain in power for at least another 30 years. How does the Congress party respond to the backlash? The Congress party has defended Mallikarjun Kharge by framing his words as a common political idiom rather than a personal attack. They argue that the BJP is being selective in its outrage regarding political language. Congress spokesperson Surendra Rajput argued that the remark should be understood within its political context. According to News24 Online , Rajput stated: "Kharge ji only used an idiom. PM Modi has said much worse comments." The party maintains that the BJP is reacting to language that is standard in the heat of political debate. The defense focuses on the idea that the Prime Minister has previously used harsh language against opposition members. By characterizing the remark as an idiom, the Congress seeks to de-escalate the accusations of indecency leveled by the Home Minister and other BJP officials. They continue to reject the notion that the remark was a targeted insult against the Prime Minister's family. What is the background of the political tension in Bihar? The incident occurred during a commemorative event for a historical figure, highlighting the high stakes of political gatherings in the region. The tension reflects a broader struggle between the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress over the direction of Indian governance. The event was held to honor Shri Krishna Singh , who served as the first Chief Minister of Bihar. The political climate in the region has been heightened by recent protests regarding electoral fraud claims. During his speech, Kharge had already been addressing these sensitive issues, which set the stage for the sudden interruption by the audience member. The confrontation has moved beyond a local disagreement in Patna to a national level. The BJP has used the incident to highlight what they describe as a pattern of behavior by the Congress party. This includes past criticisms of the Prime Minister's background and family, which the BJP uses to paint the opposition as lacking decorum. What happens next in this political dispute? The controversy is expected to escalate as the BJP moves forward with its planned demonstrations. The focus will likely remain on whether the Congress party offers a formal apology or continues to defend the remark as an idiom. The BJP has already announced plans to launch nationwide protests in response to the comments made by the Congress President. These protests aim to demand accountability for what the party considers an insult to the Prime Minister. As the political temperature rises, the incident is likely to become a central theme in upcoming regional and national political discussions. The following elements will determine the direction of the dispute: The scale and locations of the BJP's announced nationwide protests. Any official statements or apologies from the Congress party leadership. Further reactions from the central government regarding the conduct of opposition leaders. Frequently Asked Questions Who is Santosh Kumar? He is the man from the audience who claimed his words were misunderstood during Mallikarjun Kharge's speech. He stated he was not heckling but was instead making a point about political revolt. Why is the BJP protesting? The BJP is protesting because they believe Mallikarjun Kharge's remark about the Prime Minister's father was a personal and indecent insult. They have called for nationwide demonstrations to demand accountability. What was the event in Patna about? The event was a commemoration of the 139th birth anniversary of Shri Krishna Singh, the first Chief Minister of Bihar. It was held at the Bapu Sabhagar in Patna.

Arjun Mehta·06:25 26.10.2026

South Asia

Bangladesh Unrest Grows as Supporters Demand Sheikh Hasina's Return

Pro-Awami League activists engaged in violent protests across Bangladesh on Tuesday, February 11, 2025, demanding the return of deposed Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The unrest, which included bombings and arson, marks the first major organized show of force by her supporters since she was ousted in August 2024. One 60-year-old bus driver died from smoke inhalation in Faridpur on Tuesday, according to Assam Tribune . Police used tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse crowds in various districts, according to BBC . The United Nations estimated up to 1,400 people died during the 2024 anti-government protests, according to BBC . Why is there violence in Bangladesh right now? The violence stems from escalating tensions regarding the potential return of Sheikh Hasina to her home country. Tensions rose after the former leader requested a passport from the Bangladesh High Commission in New Delhi to facilitate her return from exile in India. While she expressed a desire to return in December, the current government remains opposed to her arrival. Protesters, including members of the banned Bangladesh Chhatra League (BCL), have used crude bombs and arson to demonstrate their support. In the Gopalganj district, a police vehicle was set on fire during clashes with security forces, BBC reported. In the Shariatpur district, activists reportedly vandalized vehicles and exploded bombs at the Padma Bridge toll plaza, according to Assam Tribune . Who are the main players in this conflict? The conflict involves the current interim government and the supporters of the ousted Awami League party. The interim government is led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, who took charge after the student-led uprising in August 2024. Sheikh Hasina, aged 79, led the Awami League for 15 years before fleeing to India. The Bangladesh Chhatra League (BCL) is the banned student wing of Hasina's party. While the government has banned the Awami League and its affiliates, these groups continue to stage demonstrations. Security forces, including the police, are currently tasked with managing the protests and maintaining order across the country. How does each side tell the story? The Bangladeshi government views Sheikh Hasina as a criminal who must face justice for past actions. Officials have expressed a firm stance against her return, emphasizing her status as a fugitive. They reject the idea that her supporters are being targeted, despite claims from the opposition. "She is a fugitive criminal. We have an active extradition treaty with India. We want her handed over." The junior foreign affairs minister, Humaiun Kobir, questioned the possibility of treating the former leader as a regular traveler, according to BBC . Meanwhile, the Awami League and its supporters claim they are being victims of violence and that their actions are a response to being suppressed. "Our supporters were not responsible for the violent incidents. They were carried out by unknown miscreants. We believe in peaceful protests." A senior leader of the BCL, currently in exile, attributed the violence to unknown individuals rather than their own members, as reported by BBC . Awami League leaders also allege that hundreds of their supporters have been killed in mob violence over the last two years. What happened during the recent protests? The protests caused significant disruption to transport and safety across multiple regions. In Faridpur, a 60-year-old bus driver died after a vehicle was set on fire while he was sleeping inside, according to Assam Tribune . In northern Netrokona, a coach of the Haor Express was also set on fire at a railway station, though services were not disrupted, Assam Tribune reported. Traffic was also blocked on the Padma Bridge, which connects Dhaka to the south-western region. About 200 protesters briefly obstructed the 6.2km bridge, according to BBC . Protesters also used burning tires to create roadblocks in various parts of the country. What is the legal status of Sheikh Hasina? Sheikh Hasina faces severe legal consequences if she returns to Bangladesh. A special tribunal convicted her of crimes against humanity in November 2025, sentencing her to death in absentia, according to BBC . She has consistently denied these charges, describing the legal proceedings as politically motivated. A state prosecutor stated on Tuesday that the death sentence would be executed if she returns, noting that she has missed her opportunity to appeal, according to BBC . The government is currently seeking her extradition from India to face these charges. What is the history of this political crisis? The current instability follows a massive uprising in August 2024 that ended Hasina's 15-year rule. During her tenure, opposition parties accused her of jailing rivals and suppressing dissent, though she always denied these claims. The uprising led to her fleeing to India and the installation of an interim government. Since her departure, the Awami League has been banned and was prevented from contesting the February general election, according to BBC . The country remains divided between the interim administration and the remnants of the previous regime's political structure. What happens next? The immediate focus remains on the extradition process. India has acknowledged receiving requests from Bangladesh to hand over Hasina, but the Indian Ministry of External Affairs has not yet announced a decision, according to Assam Tribune . The request is currently being examined under established diplomatic processes. Security forces will likely continue to monitor pro-Hasina groups to prevent further clashes. The interim government's ability to maintain order will be tested as more demonstrations occur. Any movement by Hasina to secure travel documents or return to the region will likely trigger further unrest. Frequently Asked Questions Why is Sheikh Hasina in India? She fled to India in August 2024 following a massive student-led uprising that toppled her government. What are the charges against her? A Bangladeshi tribunal convicted her of crimes against humanity, and she faces a death sentence in absentia. Will she be extradited from India? Bangladesh has requested her extradition, and India is currently examining the request, but no decision has been made. SEO Meta Description: Violence erupts in Bangladesh as supporters of ousted PM Sheikh Hasina protest her potential return. Arson, bombings, and clashes mark the escalating unrest. URL Slug: bangladesh-violence-sheikh-hasina-protest-return

Arjun Mehta·12:00 11.11.2026

Will China Banned Nvidia Chips Impact the Global RAM Market?

Is a global chip glut actually coming?

How does Elon Musk see the Chinese threat?

Can China overcome US technology bans?

What are the risks for South Korean manufacturers?

How does the market view the current boom?

What happens next?

Frequently Asked Questions

Sources

Related Articles

ASEAN Envoy to Visit Myanmar to Advance Peace Plan

Political Storm Erupts in Patna Following Controversial Modi News

Bangladesh Unrest Grows as Supporters Demand Sheikh Hasina's Return